Development triangles that build themselves
Multiple IBNR methods run in parallel against each line of business, with credibility weighting, tail selections, and blend ratios locked to the run record.
| AY | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | Tail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4,820 | 8,940 | 11,230 | 12,680 | 13,100 | 1.042 |
| 2022 | 5,110 | 9,440 | 11,890 | 13,310 | IBNR | 1.042 |
| 2023 | 5,630 | 10,220 | 12,750 | IBNR | IBNR | 1.042 |
| 2024 | 6,080 | 10,940 | IBNR | IBNR | IBNR | 1.042 |
| 2025 | 6,440 | IBNR | IBNR | IBNR | IBNR | 1.042 |
The methods your team already uses
HyperCal implements the standard actuarial methods in a controlled, auditable environment.
Development factor method
Age-to-age factors calculated from historical triangles. Volume-weighted and simple average selections configurable per accident year range.
Expected loss blending
Blends experience-based development with a priori expected loss ratios. Particularly stable for immature accident years with limited data.
Derived expected loss ratio
Estimates the expected loss ratio from the data itself rather than relying on an external a priori. Reduces sensitivity to prior period assumptions.
Count and average severity splits
Develops claim counts and average severities separately. Useful for lines where frequency and severity trends diverge significantly.
Method blending
Credibility-weighted blends of multiple methods configurable per LOB. Blend weights, minimum credibility thresholds, and fallback rules set per carrier.
Curve fitting and judgment
Exponential, inverse power, and Weibull curve fits applied to select tail factors. Manual overrides permitted with mandatory rationale documentation.
Run your triangles in a controlled environment
Request access to see how your current loss data maps to HyperCal's reserving workflow.